Wednesday, May 10, 2017

US attack on North Korea imminent

Not because North Korea is threatening Nuclear Strike. 
Not because NK might be committing a genocide. 
Not because Trump doesn't like the hair style of the chief of NK.
And certainly not because the global peace is in quandary.

These are not the reasons US will attack North Korea. But it is because Trump might attack North Korea.

Trump is left with very little choice to divert the attention of US citizens from the ongoing internal scandals and muddle including the latest firing of FBI chief, which are expected to raise too many uncomfortable questions which even Ms. Conway might have tough time to justify.

Attacking North Korea is the only way that Trump can manage to take the country into confidence. I actually got this thought after watching a TV series in which the protagonist plays the role of US president.

War at times is used as a significant diversionary tactic from the impending issue. The same was used by some of Trump's predecessors and Trump in all fairness have the rights to do so. 

And, it'd be no surprise that the war will take a huge burden on every one involved, but the ratings of Trump will cease to go down. More so, because the citizens of the nation have little choice than to rally behind the supreme commander in the event of a war.

Hence, if Trump didn't already get the idea, this blog may as well give him that.

Beware North Korea. Whether you are right or Wrong. Trump might attack you!

Sunday, January 29, 2017


He wasn't certainly his vintage best. He used to look much more composed, much smarter, fitter ..
(So, was I at that time :) )... 
All hope was lost until 2 weeks ago. Since 2012, it felt as if the god has decided to come down to earth and stay and live on earth. Everyone could beat him on the court, which he ruled for so many years .. yet, he felt coming back as if there was something that he owed to the courts and at the end the courts would seek their vengeance by not letting him conquer them again.
Every court and every year continued to be the same. From one mortal to another, everyone was able to deprive the god of his jewels, which he was trying so desperately.

It took his two daughters' mischief to make him break a tissue in his bone and go on 6 month rest. Suddenly, the courts came alive as every one of these mortals have started conquering the crowns, without the original king in foray any more.

There was another king of clay, who was also trying to come to his own terms, similar to how an emperor feels when his massive army is not wiling to fight and wants to lurk around.

Comes today, and both the kings have decided to fight it out to get, what was traditionally theirs. And the superior prevailed. 

Federer the god prevailed in the Australian open 2017, and breaking the jinx of almost 5 years of wait for the 18th grandslam title. I spoke to various people who were hoping every time that he is in finals that somehow he would get there. But, somehow 2017 began on a tone which is very refreshing to sports..

Trump is still there to play the spoil sport.

I was jubilant when I finally saw the hawk-eye showing that the forehand shot from Federer wasn't wide off the court and I jumped along with Federer and so did the whole world.. (my world)

Nadal was very upset, but even he realized that his presence in the court for 5 sets, was largely due to the unforced errors from Federer, otherwise the game would have been over within 3 hours and wouldn't have played out the deserved match that it turnedout to be.

Both their legs and age and looks tired.. but there is this one shot of Nadal, which showed his fierceness and then in the other shot Federer reclaiming his composure..

Both seem to have gotten back their best abilities... And this time on, I am looking forward to Federer vs Nadal match... for, the kings have decided to finally play!!

Monday, February 15, 2016

Missing Laptop!

We miss people and we get attached to lot of things.
If you may not call it obsession or anything, I am typing these words for the last time from the laptop which has given me company through some of the best times in my life.
It shared all the pain and joy of me and I could only convey them through this laptop.
It allowed me all the skype sessions, chats, gossips, photos without which the reflection of my personality was empty.
This is only witness to the cries, smiles, songs, videos that has shaped my past 5 years.

I can easily write the last few lines from this laptop and totally dedicate this song to this machine alone.
" mukaam woh phir nahi aate ..."

Wishing adieu to this one machine, which meant so much to me!

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Currency Manipulation subsidy!

Chinese foreign exchange reserves stand at $3.65 trillion. US foreign exchange reserves stand at $113 bn!
Chinese debt stands at ~$5.2 trillion. US debt is ~$18.3 trillion!
Yet, China choses to devalue its currency by more than 2% w.r.t USD!
The devaluation raises some questions.
The WTO norms seek for gradual removal of subsidies and also the other economic barriers surrounding any trade between nations. But isn’t the currency devaluation a form of subsidy being extended by the Chinese Govt. to its industries. Subsidies are generally extended in the form of tax exemptions, lower credit or moratorium periods or relaxed accounting guidelines. But an exchange based subsidy (Currency manipulation subsidy) is something that the Chinese Govt. is exploring, if not the first time, to its full potential.
Why Can’t other countries chose to do so. Because most of the other countries have a mix of imports and exports and by de-valuating their currencies they are risking the increase in imports and hence inflation. China has lot more exports than imports and hence can afford to do so. Chinese in a single shot have gone ahead of their competitors by more than 2%!!
Now, what does it mean for markets around the world. For sure, all the goods from China would become sweeter and more companies would vie for that. Increased discounts in USA and other countries as they have a bigger leverage now.
Countries like India which are trying to compete by establishing their manufacturing basis will find it increasingly tough to do so. Already the devaluation alone is expected to increase the imports of Steel to India from China by ~17%. At best countries can aspire to become assembly stations of the manufactured goods from China.
Even for countries like USA, you’d hardly find the possibility of any rise in local manufacturing thwarted by this.
Is it any good for other nations at all?
For any country which is planning to import, this is probably the best thing. And all other exporting nations which are trying to compete with China, this is a big big news!!
What about China? Is it good for them?
Yes and No. Yes because the export oriented industries will continue to benefit. No, because suddenly credit in USD becomes costlier and increased cost of commodities will have its impact on inflation and costs of goods. One would have to wait and watch, if the increased revenue from exports will outweigh the rise in costs. Credit and loans for companies will not be a real issue as China will ensure that most of the industries that are significant to its economy continue to receive credit at lower rates thereby taking away that risk.
What does it mean for Energy and other industries?
Since most of the commodities are traded in USD, it may not really impact a lot to commodities. More so, Chinese will continue to tap more into their own local resources and so it may be at best a good news for local mining and other companies in China. For sure, the supply chain and logistics industries will probably see a major shuffle in the short term to medium term range.
What about USA?
Many listed companies in US will continue to produce more goods from China as this will show a positive increase in their bottom lines. But any revival in local manufacturing industry will take a big hit. Expect to see big discussions/debates about this subsidy in the upcoming US presidential elections, since a weaker Chinese currency would mean lesser jobs within US in the conventional industries.
Looks like, overall its a smart move to alleviate any immediate fears about its economy. It’d be interesting to see how other countries will respond.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Technical parameters at the mercy of commercials ..err Politics

Any one who has basic understanding of power plants would know that every equipment and the power plant as a total requires how much power to run.

For example: a standard 270 MW plant would require so much, a super critical 800 MW boiler would burn so much coal etc.

One wonders though why would the total consumption for a power plant change so much.

As usual, the ambiguities come from one of Reliance for one of the largest power plants in the world (Sasan UMPP)

Here is a brief history of the estimates given by Reliance on its expected coal consumption:

  1. In 2007, when Sasan was awarded to Reliance it initially quoted that it would require 16 mtpa (million tonnes per annum) to run its plant
  2. In 2007, Reliance quoted that it can mine 25 mtpa of coal from the mines it was awarded. This was 9 mtpa more than the requirement.
  3. As per the approved mine plant, Reliance was allowed to use 4 mtpa beyond the requirement of the plant
  4. In 2014, NDA government cancelled the coal license to the tune of 5 mtpa from Reliance. Remember this should still allow 20 mtpa to be mined and that should be more than sufficient for the 16 mtpa requirement
  5. In 2015, Reliance states that it underestimated the coal requirement, which now stands at 19 mtpa. And since it was allowed an additional 4 mtpa as per the mining plant, it now claims that the new coal block be allotted.
I wonder if there is any plant whose coal consumption increased by 25% than previous estimates. And that too for one of the most efficient plants!!