Rapes committed in Indian States/Cities

Introduction
The recent increase in the rapes have made me just do a survey on the performance of various states/cities about the crimes committed in them. A comparison of Rapes that have happened in various states in 2008 is tabulated below.


The summary of the table is:
a)    MP has the dubisous record of highest number of rapes committed
b)    AP is the worst performer in the Southern states which on an overall basis seem to be secure places for women
c)    Mizoram has the highest per capita rapes i.e. the number of rapes per million women population. Many North Eastern States have fared bad.
d)    Delhi, has more rapes than the states which have almost 4 times its population.

Before I jump to any conclusion on the best place to reside, rather the worst place to reside, I thought it would be fair to judge the performance of various cities and then get an overall idea. Here is the performance of various cities

The summary of the table is:
a)    Delhi & Mumbai have the most number of rapes but Delhi has more than double the per capita crimes as Mumbai has. Infact Mumbai has one of the least per capita rapes.
b)    Dhanbad grabs the rank of having the highest number of per capita rapes. It can probably be accrued to the heavy mining that happens there and hence the heavy influence of contractors/owners on the labourers.
c)    Chennai seems to be the best place to reside in terms of rapes.

Analysis
The numbers actually give a different image from the apparent reality. It was thought that Northern States would top the list of number of rapes committed. But the data doesn’t concur with that opinion. Yes, UP does appear in the top. But the rest of states like Haryana & Punjab do not come under the worst performing states.
Since the total no. of rapes doesn’t alone give the true picture, Total no. of rapes per million women population was calculated.
Mizoram tops the list on this parameter. Infact most of the North Eastern States seem to be faring high on the total no. of rapes per million women population. Hence, these states are no less secure than their counterparts.

I wanted to check if there are any macro variables that actually lead to more rapes. The ones that I considered are: total population, sex ratio and Density of Population. When I did a correlation with these three variables and the total number of rapes, then the values are:

Population      0.75
Sex Ratio       0.14
Density         -0.11

Hence sex ratio and density of population are not the main criterion for increased rapes.

I was wondering what might be the reason for such high rates in North Eastern States, J&K etc. I guess it has to do with the continuous military rule in these states and also the human rights violations. The same reason is applicable to Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa & MP where there is a huge naxal movement, and in order to suppress the same huge para military forces are deployed who in-turn are prone to commit crimes on the civilian population.

It would be interesting to check if rapes and other crimes have increased due to prolonged military/police presence in a state. If that is true, there is a justification for the very high rapes in North Eastern, Eastern and J&K.

The other variables which may give a better picture are literacy rate, unemployment rate, % of immigrants, per capita income.

Also, the other most important factor would be the percentage of rapes that are reported. If a lot of crimes are committed, but are not reported like in the case of Pakistan, one may never be able to get the true picture.
Conclusion
Gujarat seems to be the most safe place for women.

Except Andhra Pradesh, other Southern states have fared better.
North Eastern & Eastern States seem to be carrying a very bad reputation
The performance of Northern States/cities is in-conclusive at best. But Delhi certainly do not seem to be a safe place to reside.

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